Milei’s Party Scores Landslide Win in Argentina’s Midterm Elections

With more than 40% of the national vote, the ruling coalition pulled off an unthinkable feat: reversing its defeat in Buenos Aires Province and securing a legislative majority that will shield the president.

Argentina’s political map has been decisively redrawn. La Libertad Avanza (LLA) sealed a sweeping victory in the 2025 midterm elections, capturing more than 40% of the national vote — a strong show of support that exceeded all expectations.

Far from being an adverse plebiscite, tonight’s results mark a resounding vote of confidence in President Javier Milei’s government, giving him crucial political and legislative breathing room for the second half of his term.

The Buenos Aires Province shock

The biggest surprise — and the key to the triumphant narrative — came in Buenos Aires Province. The ticket led by Diego Santilli (LLA) defeated Peronism, an unexpected milestone considering that just two months ago the provincial ruling party had won local elections by more than 14 points.

The government managed to channel public discontent and overturn months of financial uncertainty and corruption scandals.

The result is a political balm for Milei: not only did he exceed his own goal — securing one-third of the lower house to “shield” his decisions — but he also gained the latitude to reshuffle his Cabinet without the pressure of defeat.

Keys to a historic comeback

At the Libertador Hotel campaign headquarters, euphoria mingled with analysis as party leaders dissected the factors behind LLA’s turnaround after its poor performance in earlier provincial contests.

The tactical strike in Buenos Aires Province. The “big turning point,” insiders said, was the bold decision — led by Karina Milei and Santiago Caputo — to replace a key candidate with Diego Santilli less than 18 days before the vote. The move proved decisive in flipping the province.

Santiago Caputo’s roadmap. The strategist focused on rekindling the spirit of the 2023 presidential campaign: sending Milei himself back on the road across the provinces, reenergizing ties with young voters and the movement known as Las Fuerzas del Cielo, and softening the rhetoric to connect more empathetically with citizens bearing the brunt of the economic adjustment.

The decisive players. Beyond Santilli’s success and Caputo’s strategy, the outcome also boosted the standing of Economy Minister Luis “Toto” Caputo, whose negotiations with the United States were key to containing the dollar’s surge. Arriving at campaign headquarters smiling and confident, “Toto” had much at stake in this election.

Internal challenges and Peronist disarray

With victory secured, Milei now faces an immediate test: managing tensions within his inner circle — particularly among the so-called “Iron Triangle” of Karina Milei and Santiago Caputo. Persistent rumors of Chief of Staff Guillermo Francos’s resignation have put the president’s sister in a decisive position to pick his successor.

Meanwhile, Peronism is reeling from a wholly unexpected defeat. The result not only strains the bloc’s unity but also raises questions about Cristina Kirchner’s overarching strategy. It’s clear that Governor Axel Kicillof and the mayors of Buenos Aires Province failed to deliver the expected turnout, foreshadowing fierce internal debates over leadership and direction.

Finally, the debut of Provincias Unidas — the centrist alliance that sought to break polarization — ended in disappointment. The defeats of figures like Juan Schiaretti, Maximiliano Pullaro, and Ignacio Torres confirmed that voters doubled down on the two dominant national blocs.

Politics and markets now await the government’s next moves: the new Cabinet lineup and the economic and policy course it will chart with its renewed political capital.